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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It commonly serves as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

But this year's competition is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and recent underperformers improving together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still