A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
