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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd